The below editorial was published in the June 11, 2012 edition of the USA TODAY. The electronic version can be found here.

by David Kotok

Many analysts argue that the eurozone crisis will put the U.S. economy into a recession. They are wrong.

Most fail to acknowledge the lessons learned by Americans during the last five years of crisis and subsequent ongoing recovery. We suffered our Lehman/AIG moment in 2008, but have responded affirmatively. The Federal Reserve has tripled the size of its balance sheet, deploying “Operation Twist” lengthening the maturities of its asset holdings, and has supported the domestic housing market. The Fed’s consistency of approach has underpinned our recovery.

The European Central Bank is trying to catch up. Its new leader, Mario Draghi, is trying to expand his tool kit in Europe’s Lehman/AIG moment, to backstop market confidence in Portugal, Italy, Ireland, Greece and Spain, the five countries leading the deterioration of the eurozone sovereign finance.

In the United States, Fed policy is sensitive to any euro transmission risk and is geared to respond with determination.

Switching to fiscal policy in Europe, sovereign governments still wrestle with fiscal balance. Their deficit structures are unsustainable, and choppy austerity efforts have not inspired market or political confidence.

In the U.S., fiscal improvement is already underway. States and local governments have reduced headcounts and are starting to address underfunded social commitments and pension obligations. In an election year, all likely political outcomes will lead to more pressure on fiscal policy, and most believe the deficit will shrink. The question is how much.

Three sector dynamics highlight an extended, robust U.S. economic recovery, as we see these early signs of green shoots:

• Manufacturing sector growth will produce additional jobs.
• The energy sector is recovering. The boom in natural gas shale affirms this is a long-term growth industry, which will happen in spite of politicians, not because of them.
• The housing sector is starting to show signs of bottoming and stabilizing process.

Combine manufacturing, energy and housing with the present economic recovery, and the GDP growth rate for the U.S. will accelerate over time, driven by domestic activity and irrespective of what happens in the eurozone.