Macron Winning His Gamble?
September 13, 2024
French President Emmanuel Macron appointed Michel Barnier as prime minister on September 6, despite lacking a majority in the National Assembly. Barnier, a veteran center-right leader, is expected to build a coalition with Republicains, Centrists, and Socialists to implement modest reforms. His leadership could also gain leniency from Marine Le Pen's far-right RN, especially on issues like immigration and fiscal restraint. Macron’s decision to call a snap election in June was strategic. With a looming political challenge from extreme parties like RN and La France Insoumise (LFI), the early election helped clarify the political landscape. It led to the formation of the left-leaning coalition Nouveau Front Populaire (NFP), and exposed the Republicains' need to align with Macron's government. Key challenges for Macron and Barnier include addressing France's fiscal deficit, navigating EU relations, and managing domestic unrest, all while contending with external pressures such as the rise of extremism in Germany and potential global shifts like a second Trump presidency.
France At A Turning Point
June 26, 2024
French president Macron threw down the electoral gauntlet to what looks like a large majority of voters who seem to prefer the extreme right or left to his centrist coalition. He hopes the French will, after “voting with their heart” on the first round on June 30, “vote with their wallet” on the second, decisive, […]
How to Pay for Climate Change?
November 8, 2023
The following essay on “How to pay for climate change” was written by J. Paul Horne, a member of the GIC’s board of directors, at the invitation of David R. Kotok, founder of Cumberland Advisors and GIC board member. It triggered various responses including the subsequent point and counterpoint with Bob Bunting, a member of the GIC and CEO of The Climate Adaptation Center in Sarasota, FL which has made presentations to the GIC. The link to the IEA’s new global energy analysis of climate change is included at the end of this report. The GIC invites further comments about climate change.
Why the dollar is the world’s reserve currency
February 10, 2023
In response to Nouriel Roubini’s recent op-ed on why the USD was threatened by the likes of China, Russia and Saudi Arabia, GIC Board Member, Paul Horne published a letter in the financial times.
America has to end its toxic tax debate
September 19, 2022
Paul Horne, GIC Board Member and Active Independent International Market Economist, penned a letter in Financial Times in response to a recent Market Insights column, “A painful era of ‘spend but don’t tax’ faces investors.”
French Politics in 2022
May 11, 2022
GIC Board Member, J. Paul Horne, an Independent International Market Economist, wrote about France’s 2022 elections and the current political-economic-fiscal situation.
Will US Treasury yields hurt private equity boom?
September 14, 2020
GIC Board Member, J Paul Horne discusses Federal Reserve Strategy and Private Equity, originally in a letter to the Financial Times on August 31, 2020.
College of Central Bankers series: Court’s implicit rejection of basic EU tenet would give cause for concern
August 4, 2019
GIC Board Member, J Paul Horne’s report on the EU and the European Central Bank was published by The Financial Times and is used with permission.
College of Central Bankers series: Investors need to be aware of the other bond bubble
June 20, 2019
GIC Board Member, J Paul Horne’s report on European and Japanese government bonds was published by The Financial Times and is used with permission.
Europe’s Parliamentary Elections Roil Europe’s Economic Outlook
June 14, 2019
GIC Board Member, J Paul Horne’s report on the results of the European Parliamentary elections was published by The European Institute at the University of Maryland (www.europeaninstitute.org/ ) and is used with permission.
Italy’s 2019 Budget Worries the EU and Global Markets
October 26, 2018
GIC Board Member, J Paul Horne’s report on the on the implications of the Italian budget battle was published by the Bertelsmann Foundation in cooperation with The European Institute at the University of Maryland.
Brexit Accelerates Business Exodus
August 15, 2017
Banks, insurers, businesses and European Union (EU) agencies based in the UK are accelerating their moves to assure full access in the EU, the world’s largest financial-economic area.