NPR/WHYY – Radio Times with Marty Moss-Coane: Biden’s economic plan and the state of the economy
September 21, 2021
Mark Zandi, Chief Economist at Moody’s Analytics and former GIC speaker, was recently featured on NPR Radio Times for a discussion on the state of the economy.
In response to Mr. Zandi’s comments, Peter Gold, Chair of the GIC College of Central Bankers asked, “What is the definition of “transitory” referring to inflation? When does transitory become longer?”
“I would worry that above target inflation is not transitory if inflation expectations in long-term bond yields are persistently above target inflation, and that unit labor cost growth is consistently accelerating. Neither is the case today.” – Mark Zandi, Chief Economist, Moody’s Analytics
We thank Mark for his permission to share his response and invite you to reply below with your views on this topic. The link to this episode of Radio Times is below for your reference.
September 15, 2021 – Biden’s economic plan and the state of the economy
NPR/WHYY – Radio Times with Marty Moss-Coane
Click here to listen to this podcast episode. (Inflation discussion begins at minute 33:55).
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Seems to me that Zandi is right. The high inflation observed around the world appears to be transitory and pushed upwrds by base effects. Over the last couple of months there has been some slowing, but also lots of variation. IN the UK last month CPI fell 0.5% and this month it rose 1.2%.
The issue seems to be what is there in the data to suggest that inflation at the forecast horizon – say 2 years ahead is going to be markedly above 2%? Many of the price rises are driven by bottlenecks and once off changes but as we saw with the price of timber which rose sharply consumers can alter their spending habits in the face of price rises. In the UK this month the price of second hand cars was up 19%, so people put off buying cars and the price falls. INflation is about the price of a representatuve basket of goods and as prices change consumptin patterns change. Lower priced goods are substituted for higher priced goods so inflation falls.
There is potentially some evidence that wages for particular types of work has changed and will have to rise but these may well be once off changes
So my view is nothing to see here, which has been the case for at least a decade.
Danny Blanchflower