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ARTICLE

In the Long Run, Will Europe be Grateful to Greece?

January 01, 1970

by J. Paul Horne, Independent Market Economist* Europe must be grateful to Greece for dramatizing: how the Euro is fundamentally flawed; how the Euro’s failure could cause a financial-economic disaster; and how European Union (EU) leaders must, despite all their differences and electoral setbacks cooperate to avoid a Greek tragedy. This week will be crucial […]

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“Hollande Day in France” – A Commentary on the Election in France

January 01, 1970

By J. Paul Horne, Independent International Market Economist* Well, he’s in with nearly 52% of the popular vote as Sarkozy was rebuffed with barely 48%, only the second President of the Fifth Republic to be voted out after only one term, a major political reversal for the right. Sarko paid the price of the financial […]

ARTICLE

Sell in May?

April 14, 2012

The old adage “Sell in May and go away” was good guidance for stock markets last year. The market peaked on April 29 and bottomed on October 3. For a detailed discussion of this period and the subsequent bull-market recovery, see our new book From Bear to Bull with ETFs. The eBook (ten bucks) is now available on Amazon.com. Paperbacks by month end and other channels of distribution like iBook and Nook are coming. Please note that profits from this book will be donated to the Global Interdependence Center.

History shows that ‘Sell in May and go away’ has applied when the Federal Reserve was in a tightened mode during the six-month span from May to November. If the Fed was actively raising interest rates, withdrawing or constricting credit, imposing additional reserve requirements, or taking an action that was of a tightening mode, stock markets were usually punished in that six-month period.

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Restoring Central Banks After the Crisis

March 26, 2012

Re-Examining Central Bank Orthodoxy for Unorthodox Times: Inaugural Meeting of the Global Society of Fellows of the Global Interdependence Center

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Monetary Policy and Economic Inequality in the United States

January 01, 1970

ARTICLE

Does Central Bank Independence Frustrate the Optimal Fiscal-Monetary Policy Mix in a Liquidity Trap?

January 01, 1970

ARTICLE

Poland, the EU Growth Leader

January 01, 1970

By Bill Witherell, Cumberland Advisors Chief Global Economist The title of this commentary may come as a surprise. Over the past year and a half, the sovereign debt crisis in the Eurozone has dominated European issues in the financial press. There has been little mention of the Central and Eastern Europe members of the […]

ARTICLE

One Year After the Tsunami, Japan Is Back

January 01, 1970

by Bill Witherell, Chief Global Economist, Cumberland Advisors One year ago the Japanese economy was dealt a devastating blow by a major earthquake and the resulting tsunami and nuclear crisis. In 2011 Japanese economic growth, as measured by real (constant-price) GDP, is estimated to have declined by almost 1%. There are indications the economy is […]

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Return of the BRIC Equity Markets

January 01, 1970

This commentary was written by Bill Witherell, Cumberland’s Chief Global Economist. He joined Cumberland after years of experience at he OECD in Paris. his bio is found on Cumberland’s homepage, www.cumber.com. He can be reached at [email protected]. Last year’s series of disturbing shocks to the global economy and the willingness of global investors to take […]

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McVean Weekly Update – February 24, 2012

January 01, 1970

by Michael Drury, Chief Economist, McVean Trading & Investments, LLC Taylor Somerville, CFA, Senior Economist, McVean Trading & Investments, LLC Vadim Sinitsyn, Associate Economist, McVean Trading & Investments, LLC Historically, economists have found that when a country’s per capita GDP exceeds $3,000 good things happen. Wealthier households begin to invest in durable goods, like automobiles […]

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Paul after PIMCO

February 09, 2012

By Jennifer Ablan and Matthew Goldstein, Reuters

Paul McCulley says working at bond giant PIMCO was like being in Camelot. […]

ARTICLE

PCE and CPI

February 08, 2012

By David Kotok

“The Committee judges that inflation at the rate of 2 percent, as measured by the annual change in the price index for personal consumption expenditures[…]

Global Interdependence Center

Topic

Articles

In the Long Run, Will Europe be Grateful to Greece?

“Hollande Day in France” – A Commentary on the Election in France

Sell in May?

Restoring Central Banks After the Crisis

Monetary Policy and Economic Inequality in the United States

Does Central Bank Independence Frustrate the Optimal Fiscal-Monetary Policy Mix in a Liquidity Trap?

Poland, the EU Growth Leader

One Year After the Tsunami, Japan Is Back

Return of the BRIC Equity Markets

McVean Weekly Update – February 24, 2012

Paul after PIMCO

PCE and CPI